Propensity Modeling
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Propensity Modeling

Written by
Ankit.Sharma
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Propensity Modeling uses statistical techniques and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a customer taking a specific action—such as purchasing, churning, or responding to an offer. 

Example:
A model scores users on a scale of 0 to 100 based on how likely they are to complete a purchase within 7 days. 

Why Does Propensity Modeling Matter? 

  • Prioritizes high-value users for targeting
     
  • Optimizes marketing spend and efficiency
     
  • Informs campaign timing and messaging
     

How Propensity Models Work: 

  • Use logistic regression, decision trees, or neural networks
     
  • Input features include past behavior, recency, frequency, and demographics
     
  • Output is a probability or score
     

How to Apply Propensity Modeling: 

  1. Score users for conversion likelihood
     
  2. Target win-back efforts to at-risk users
     
  3. Segment based on upsell/cross-sell potential
     
  4. Personalize offers based on score thresholds
     

 

FAQs:
Is propensity modeling only for conversions?
No—it can predict churn, clicks, product affinity, and more. 

What data is required for accurate modeling?
Clickstream data, transaction history, and CRM attributes. 

How often should models be updated?
Regularly—monthly or as soon as new patterns emerge. 

What are common algorithms used?
Logistic regression, random forests, and gradient boosting. 

Take Action
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